Grayscale is utilizing money stream as a metric to display DeFi tokens following the crypto market’s downturn for the reason that starting of the 12 months. In its report “Information to Shopping for the Dip: Valuing Crypto With Money Flows”, up to date on June 16, 2026, Grayscale makes use of Aave as a case research for DeFi lending valuation and means that Hyperliquid, Aave, Uniswap, Sky, and Maple are displaying indicators of relative worth based mostly on value a number of evaluation.
10/ The large image: crypto is repricing from narrative → fundamentals
Protocols with actual income, disciplined capital allocation, and clear token economics are outperforming
Grayscale flags $HYPE, $AAVE, $UNI, $SKY, and $MAPLE as displaying sturdy relative worth on this… pic.twitter.com/4E9PlFRAT4
— Grayscale (@Grayscale) June 17, 2026
Grayscale’s Money-Circulate Valuation Thesis
Grayscale locations money stream on the middle of valuing crypto property with clear financial exercise, particularly DeFi protocols that generate charges from lending, derivatives buying and selling, DEXs, or stablecoins. For this group, acquainted instruments from conventional finance reminiscent of DCF, value multiples, and comparable evaluation develop into extra related.
A notable level in Grayscale’s method is whether or not success on the protocol stage interprets into worth on the token stage. Massive TVL or quantity just isn’t sufficient; tokenomics, governance, and capital allocation decide whether or not that payment stream helps token holders or stays restricted to protocol exercise.
Aave is the first case research of the report. Grayscale estimates the protocol may generate roughly $60 million in earnings in 2026, with a good worth market cap for AAVE of round $1.2–1.5 billion if making use of a fintech a number of of 20–25x. In a base case with extra regulatory readability and adoption of tokenized property, Grayscale presents a good worth of round $175 for AAVE inside one 12 months.
The 5 Tokens in Focus
Grayscale names Hyperliquid, Aave, Uniswap, Sky, and Maple as initiatives that fall inside the identical cash-flow valuation framework, however characterize totally different sectors of DeFi: derivatives, lending, DEXs, stablecoins/CDPs, and institutional credit score. DeFiLlama information present that this group collectively generates vital charges, although worth accrual mechanisms and ranges of alignment with the token differ.
DeFi cash-flow metrics of 5 initiatives. Supply: Grayscale Analysis, DeFiLlama.
Aave
Aave is the first case research of the report and the clearest instance inside the DeFi lending group. This protocol options giant liquidity scale, clear monetary information, and a worth accrual mechanism a lot clearer than previous-generation governance tokens.
Hyperliquid
Hyperliquid represents the perp DEX group that’s producing charges on the largest scale in DeFi. The challenge’s payment supply primarily comes from derivatives buying and selling, making Hyperliquid some of the outstanding circumstances within the cash-flow property group monitored by Grayscale.
Uniswap
Uniswap is among the oldest and most influential DEXs within the Ethereum ecosystem, now expanded to a number of different networks. The protocol generates a considerable amount of charges from swapping actions, however for UNI, the important thing factors to observe are the payment change, buybacks, or burns applied by way of governance.
Sky
Sky, the ecosystem developed by MakerDAO, represents the stablecoin and collateralized lending sector. SKY’s narrative is tied to the demand for stablecoin borrowing, on-chain collateral property, and mechanisms reminiscent of buybacks or staking rewards.
Maple
Maple is a smaller however notable title within the institutional credit score sector. In comparison with Aave, Maple has a narrower scale, however its mannequin specializing in institutional credit score provides the protocol a definite profile inside the DeFi lending group.
Market Context
Grayscale’s analysis comes after a interval of sharp crypto market correction for the reason that starting of the 12 months, when traders are wanting not just for deeply discounted tokens but additionally for property with clearer valuation fundamentals. For DeFi, the query of “shopping for the dip” is regularly shifting to: which protocol is producing charges, how sustainable is that payment portion, and does the token truly profit.
DeFiLlama data roughly $52.2 million in charges inside 24 hours, $1.67 billion in 30 days, and $24.91 billion in a 12 months on its charges dashboard. That scale helps cash-flow evaluation develop into a extra sensible filter for DeFi, as an alternative of simply taking a look at TVL, incentives, or cyclical narratives.
For protocols like Aave, Hyperliquid, Uniswap, Sky, and Maple, the important thing level to look at is not only the value decline of the token however their capability to keep up charges, income, and mechanisms to switch worth again to token holders.
Dangers and Caveats
Regardless of the applicability of sure conventional valuation frameworks, DeFi tokens aren’t shares. Token holders don’t have the identical authorized rights as shareholders, and a protocol’s payment stream might be allotted very in another way relying on governance, tokenomics, and treasury coverage.
The dangers for every mannequin are additionally distinct. Aave faces lending dangers and DAO regulatory dangers; Uniswap is dependent upon the payment change; Hyperliquid is delicate to derivatives buying and selling exercise; Sky depends on stablecoin and collateral demand; Maple bears institutional credit score dangers. Moreover, DeFi nonetheless faces sensible contract danger, oracle danger, liquidity, and governance modifications.
What Comes Subsequent
Grayscale’s report positions Aave because the clearest litmus check for valuing DeFi utilizing money flows: the protocol should keep charges, retain liquidity, and switch treasury coverage into measurable worth accrual for AAVE.
For Hyperliquid, Uniswap, Sky, and Maple, the questions are related however distinctive to every mannequin: will perp charges maintain up when quantity cools down, will UNI’s payment change progress additional, can Sky’s stablecoin demand keep momentum, and might Maple increase institutional credit score with out growing credit score danger. These would be the deciding elements on whether or not cash-flow valuation is merely a brand new perspective after a downturn or turns into a extra sturdy valuation framework for DeFi tokens.
