As world cocoa costs soared to report highs in 2024, the UAE’s chocolate market is dealing with each stress and promise — pushed by evolving tastes, viral traits, and rising enter prices.
The UAE chocolate market, valued at an estimated USD $736 million in 2024, is projected to develop steadily over the following decade. Nonetheless, rising commodity costs are beginning to chunk. World cocoa costs surpassed $12,500 per metric ton in December, largely as a result of poor harvests in West Africa, a key sourcing area. This spike is already pushing producers throughout the UAE to reevaluate pricing methods, product codecs, and ingredient sourcing.
Over an extended interval, costs have risen considerably. From March 2024 to January 2025, cocoa costs soared as a lot as 93%, possible flowing by way of into this 12 months’s chocolate costs and since March 2023, costs have risen almost 200%.
The “Dubai Chocolate” Phenomenon
Some of the notable developments in early 2025 is the explosive reputation of what’s being dubbed “Dubai chocolate” — a pistachio-filled, tahini-rich chocolate bar that blends regional flavours with worldwide indulgence. Born from an area chocolatier, the product went viral on social media earlier this 12 months, prompting lengthy strains at retailers and strict buy limits at high-end grocery chains overseas.
The rise of Dubai chocolate highlights a bigger development within the UAE: customers are more and more gravitating in direction of premium, experience-driven merchandise that replicate cultural identification whereas delivering world attraction. This shift could supply a buffer in opposition to price-sensitive demand, notably within the luxurious gifting section and amongst youthful demographics in search of Instagrammable treats.
Outlook for Chocolate
Cocoa costs have come down thus far in 2025 after final 12 months’s report highs. This transfer is being pushed by elevated manufacturing forecasts for the 12 months forward, which might drive a surplus and, due to this fact, easing provide considerations. However, exterior pressures proceed to construct. New worldwide commerce duties — together with proposed tariffs on cocoa imports from main African producers — could not directly affect UAE-based producers who depend on world provide chains. Sustainability rules from key buying and selling companions are additionally anticipated to extend compliance prices over time.
Regardless of these challenges, native and world manufacturers working within the UAE are displaying resilience. Many are specializing in premiumisation, smaller pack sizes, and flavour innovation to keep up profitability. For the patron, this implies “shrinkflation.” To fight rising prices, chocolate producers are lowering the dimensions of their merchandise somewhat than elevating costs immediately. Sure, meaning your favorite goodies are getting smaller, however the price ticket isn’t. This helps mitigate the affect of rising cocoa costs with out the quick backlash of seen value hikes. This usually means customers pay extra per gram of chocolate.
Demand for chocolate is prone to keep sturdy, particularly throughout festive and gifting seasons like Eid and Diwali, that means the outlook for the UAE chocolate market stays stable. However, prices will stay unsure. Producers that adapt shortly, by leveraging native preferences, sourcing flexibly, and investing in standout product design, are prone to preserve momentum in a market the place custom and development now go hand in hand.
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