Now that the bull run is useless, will Fed Chair Jerome Powell do additional fee cuts? This crash proved two issues :
1. All the time DCA into bitcoin2. Maintain and assume it’s a lifetime funding
In the meantime, Powell signaled this week that the central financial institution might be nearing the tip of its three-year effort to unwind the huge stimulus unleashed throughout the 2020 pandemic. Talking earlier than the Nationwide Affiliation of Enterprise Economics in Philadelphia, Powell mentioned the Fed might quickly conclude its balance-sheet discount.”
“We might strategy that time within the coming months,” Powell mentioned, noting that policymakers have adopted a “intentionally cautious strategy” to keep away from a repeat of the 2019 cash market freeze that compelled emergency intervention.
Right here’s the most effective case: the US authorities sputters again to life inside 7–12 days. Right here’s what you’ll want to know:
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Will Powell Do Additional Price Cuts? Fed Nears Finish of Quantitative Tightening
The Fed’s portfolio peaked at almost $9 Tn throughout the pandemic’s peak and now stands round $6.6 Tn, in response to FRED. The runoff, often known as quantitative tightening (QT), has diminished extra financial institution reserves and raised questions on whether or not liquidity circumstances may once more tighten too sharply.
Powell stopped wanting confirming an October fee reduce however didn’t deny it both, saying the “financial outlook hasn’t modified a lot” for the reason that Fed’s final assembly. Markets took that as tacit affirmation that one other fee reduce might be coming, however
Bitcoin
0.97%
responded negatively to the information, dropping 0.5%.
Right here’s the most effective case state of affairs (we’d like some excellent news, proper?):
As soon as the lights flip again on and the gov’t shutdown is over, the SEC resumes its grind towards altcoin ETF approvals, the narrative everybody’s ready on.
In the meantime, gold dips, the greenback index slides, and the Fed tees up one other 25 bps reduce on October 29.
Someplace between the shutdown headlines and the liquidity flood, the Readability Act additionally passes This fall
And as crypto merchants overthink each macro transfer, crypto does what it all the time does finest: melts up whereas nobody’s wanting. Most ache. Most irony… if you happen to’re sitting on the sideline that’s.
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What Concerning the US Shutdown? Gov’t Pressures Job Market and Information Circulate
The continuing federal authorities shutdown, now in its second week, has suspended the discharge of key financial knowledge, together with the September jobs report. Nonetheless, personal estimates from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup counsel that preliminary unemployment claims rose to round 235,000 final week, up from 224,000 beforehand.
“Excluding any shutdown noise, claims nonetheless look moderately low,” added Abiel Reinhart of JPMorgan.
To finish the shutdown, Democrats are DEMANDING $1.5 TRILLION in new partisan spending.
That is an unserious proposal made by unserious individuals.
Listed below are only a few of the issues they’re utilizing to take the federal government hostage ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/IIyQz16t1P
— Speaker Mike Johnson (@SpeakerJohnson) October 15, 2025
The labor market, whereas not collapsing, seems frozen in what economists name a “no hiring, no firing” equilibrium. In the meantime, Wall St. companies stay cautious amid commerce friction, automation adoption, and coverage uncertainty heading into 2025.
US Financial Information Factors to Fragile Momentum, What’s Subsequent?
Job openings are down 9% year-over-year, wages flat close to 4.1%, and inflation nonetheless grinding greater. With the Fed’s subsequent large knowledge week coming, CPI on Oct. 15, PPI on Oct. 16, payrolls on Oct. 17 , this market seems useless.
However it’s usually whenever you’re most pissed off, bored, and pissed off (similar factor as pissed off, however extra apt) that issues soften up.
Powell’s alerts are softening: QT could also be ending, and fee cuts are again on the desk. Shares have perked up, treasury yields are slipping, and Bitcoin’s hovering above $112K. We should always nonetheless see a brand new BTC ATH in This fall.
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Key Takeaways
Now that the bull run is useless, will Fed Chair Jerome Powell do additional fee cuts? This crash proved two issues :1. All the time DCA into bitcoin.
TJob openings are down 9% year-over-year, wages flat close to 4.1%, and inflation nonetheless grinding greater.
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