Leveraged tokens and perpetual futures signify two distinct approaches to reaching leveraged publicity. On the coronary heart of leveraged tokens’ distinctive conduct lies their rebalancing mechanism, designed to keep up leverage inside a focused vary. This contrasts with perpetual futures, the place the leverage issue fluctuates in tandem with the value actions of the underlying asset.
However past the mechanics, how do these devices fare in the actual world? Which eventualities favor the efficiency of 1 over the opposite? And importantly, how can one use this information to pick out probably the most acceptable instrument for his or her wants?
This text delves into these questions by analyzing numerous historic value eventualities and immediately evaluating the outcomes. The aim is to light up the nuances of every possibility, serving to customers to make knowledgeable choices within the evolving panorama of leveraged DeFi merchandise.
State of affairs one: Trending markets
Trending markets, characterised by clear and constant upward or downward value actions, present a superb instance of the distinct conduct between leveraged tokens and perpetual futures. Latest cases of such traits embrace the Solana rally, the place its worth surged from $20 to $200, and the Bitcoin rally, with its value growing from $27,000 to $73,000, each of which unfolded between October 2023 and March 2024.
In Determine 1, the efficiency comparability between the leveraged token (pink line) and the perpetual future (gray line) demonstrates a transparent benefit for the leveraged token. The underlying mechanism answerable for this outperformance is the rebalancing course of, marked by blue vertical traces. Rebalancing mechanically adjusts the place’s notional worth – basically the entire measurement of the leveraged publicity – at any time when the leverage issue hits a particular threshold. This adjustment results in elevated publicity, which in flip amplifies returns as the value continues to rise.
On this specific instance, the perpetual future’s leverage issue had decreased from 2x to 1.06x with a notional of $18,399 by March 18th. The leveraged token’s leverage issue, then again, remained round 2.02x with a notional of $96,144, showcasing the potential advantages of leveraged tokens underneath these market situations.
State of affairs two: Worth actions that set off liquidations
In distinction to the conduct of leveraged tokens in state of affairs one, their efficiency throughout adversarial value actions reveals a distinct benefit. In such eventualities, the rebalancing mechanism decreases the notional worth, resulting in diminished leveraged publicity. This considerably mitigates the chance of liquidation by reducing publicity throughout downturns.
Perpetual futures, nonetheless, don’t share this rebalancing characteristic. They exhibit a fluctuating leverage issue till the market reaches a liquidation value.
Determine 2 illustrates such a state of affairs. The lower of the $LINK value through the first week of January 2024 led to the liquidation of the perpetual future shortly after the place was opened.
In distinction, the leveraged token, though experiencing a margin lower just like that of the perpetual future, underwent a number of rebalancings all through the downturn. These rebalancing actions successfully diminished the quantity of borrowed funds, thereby reducing leveraged publicity and stopping liquidation. This mechanism allowed the leveraged token to keep up its place all through the interval of declining costs, showcasing the chance administration capabilities inherent within the construction of leveraged tokens.
State of affairs three: Flat and unstable value actions
The primary two eventualities offered insights into market situations the place leveraged tokens are inclined to outperform perpetual futures. Nevertheless, rebalancing additionally introduces a possible draw back in sure market environments. Particularly, in markets characterised by flat or unstable value actions, the place the necessity for frequent rebalancing – each uplevering and downlevering – may end up in what is called volatility decay. The mathematical basis underlying this course of is defined within the official Synthetix Documentation underneath the part “Volatility decay”.
Perpetual futures don’t face this situation and normally outperform leveraged tokens underneath these market situations, given they don’t get liquidated.
Determine 3 depicts a state of affairs of steady sideways motion and excessive volatility within the $LINK value. It clearly demonstrates the depreciating margin of the leveraged token over time, resulting in underperformance in comparison with the perpetual futures contract. The impression of volatility decay on the leveraged token can be additional intensified by greater leverage elements, highlighting the challenges leveraged tokens face in unstable, directionless markets.
State of affairs 4: Steady adversarial value growth
In eventualities with steady adversarial value motion, rebalancing can mitigate however not stop the impression on the margin. Ought to the value of an underlying asset persistently transfer in opposition to a place, the margin of a leveraged token will inevitably decay over time. This highlights the limitation of rebalancing in safeguarding a place in opposition to extended unfavorable market traits.
Determine 4 showcases the dynamics of a brief place through the value appreciation of $ETH from February to mid-March 2024. The perpetual future confronted liquidation firstly of March. In distinction, by March fifteenth, the leveraged token had nonetheless preserved 30% of its margin. Nevertheless, ought to this upward development proceed, the margin of the leveraged token would decay virtually solely, illustrating the gradual impression of adversarial value actions on leveraged token positions.
Conclusion
Leveraged tokens and perpetual futures every shine underneath completely different market situations. Leveraged tokens outperform in trending markets due to their rebalancing mechanism and provide safety in opposition to liquidation in adversarial actions. Nevertheless, this identical characteristic results in volatility decay in flat or unstable markets, the place perpetual futures are inclined to excel, assuming they keep away from liquidation. Whereas leveraged tokens can mitigate losses in downturns, extended adversarial traits can nonetheless erode their margin. Customers should contemplate these dynamics, balancing the potential for amplified returns in opposition to the dangers of volatility decay and market actions, to decide on the precise instrument for his or her technique.
Disclaimer
This text is for informational functions solely and isn’t meant as monetary or funding recommendation. All content material displays the creator’s views and shouldn’t be seen as particular funding suggestions. Traders ought to do their very own due diligence or seek the advice of an expert advisor earlier than making funding choices. The creator bears no accountability for any monetary losses ensuing from funding decisions primarily based on this text.
The mannequin used for producing the charts excludes funding charges and charges for each leveraged tokens and perpetual futures. This exclusion should not notably have an effect on the efficiency comparability.
