Bitcoin is holding agency above the $92,000 stage after rebounding from final week’s dip towards $90,000, providing bulls a short second of reduction. But regardless of this stabilization, market sentiment stays decisively bearish, with many merchants anticipating additional draw back until a transparent shift in momentum emerges. The timing couldn’t be extra essential: the Federal Reserve’s upcoming fee determination has develop into the central focus for buyers, and the market is bracing for heightened volatility.
In response to a brand new CryptoQuant report, Bitcoin’s historic habits round fee cuts affords significant context. Over time, Fed rate of interest cuts have typically aligned with upward actions in BTC, largely as a result of decrease charges weaken the US greenback, stimulate liquidity, and help threat belongings. Nonetheless, the report highlights an necessary nuance—the speedy response is never easy.
In a number of previous situations, Bitcoin rallied forward of fee cuts, solely to indicate muted and even damaging worth motion as soon as the choice was introduced, indicating that markets had already priced within the transfer.
This dynamic creates a layer of uncertainty heading into the FOMC assembly. Whereas macro situations align with long-term bullish traits for Bitcoin, the short-term outlook stays fragile, formed by sentiment, positioning, and the market’s anticipation quite than the announcement itself.
Historic Patterns Sign Warning Forward of the FOMC
In response to the report by GugaOnChain on CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s previous reactions to Federal Reserve fee cuts supply a transparent framework for understanding the dangers heading into this week’s FOMC assembly. The historic information paints an image of combined and sometimes counterintuitive habits.
For instance, following the 25 foundation level cuts in September 2025, Bitcoin barely reacted in any respect. In one other occasion, BTC surged to a four-week excessive—solely to drop practically $2,000 shortly after, settling right into a interval of muted stability. These reactions underscore how shortly sentiment can shift as soon as coverage choices are totally priced in.
Volatility has additionally performed a defining position. Each the September and October fee choices triggered transient pre-FOMC rallies, adopted by notable declines as soon as the bulletins have been made. After the September lower, volatility spiked sharply as merchants unwound leveraged positions, revealing how delicate Bitcoin stays to event-driven positioning.
This results in the recurring “purchase the rumor, promote the information” sample, a dynamic that GugaOnChain warns might repeat. Due to this, monitoring market leverage—together with funding charges and open curiosity—is essential. Equally necessary are liquidity flows, akin to trade reserves and ETF exercise. Collectively, these indicators assist merchants anticipate short-term worth actions as Bitcoin prepares for one more probably risky macro occasion.
Testing Restoration however Nonetheless Under Key Development Ranges
Bitcoin’s weekly chart reveals the market making an attempt to stabilize above the $92,000 stage after a pointy multi-week correction from the $120,000 area. The latest rebound from the $89,000–$90,000 zone highlights robust demand on the 100-week shifting common (inexperienced line), which is presently performing as a crucial dynamic help.
Traditionally, this MA has served as a structural spine for Bitcoin throughout mid-cycle pullbacks, and the most recent bounce reinforces its relevance.
Nonetheless, regardless of the restoration, BTC stays firmly beneath the 50-week shifting common (blue line), a stage that beforehand marked bullish continuation phases all through 2024 and early 2025. Till worth reclaims this area—now sitting close to $100,000—the broader market construction leans corrective quite than impulsively bullish. The decrease highs shaped because the peak additionally counsel that bears nonetheless retain management over the medium-term development.
Quantity habits provides one other layer: though shopping for quantity has picked up modestly, it stays considerably weaker than the aggressive promoting stress seen through the November–December decline. This means that patrons are exhibiting curiosity, however conviction has but to return in full drive.
Featured picture from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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