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Cardano rallies 11% in May, but analysts warn of downside risk

by Catatonic Times
May 28, 2025
in Analysis
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ADA is presently priced at $0.7677, down 0.04% within the final 24 hours.
A bullish MACD crossover has shaped, supporting short-term upside.
ADA futures open curiosity dropped 0.43% to $920.12 million.

Cardano (ADA) has recorded an 11% month-to-month achieve thus far in Might, buoyed by a technical bounce from the $0.72 assist degree.

Nevertheless, underlying market indicators elevate warning.

Regardless of current bullish momentum, ADA continues to wrestle inside a decent buying and selling vary and faces potential bearish stress from weakening derivatives knowledge.

On the time of writing, ADA is priced at $0.7677, reflecting a minor 0.04% decline during the last 24 hours.

Cardano price
Supply: CoinMarketCap

On the 4-hour chart, ADA rebounded from the 200-period exponential shifting common (EMA) at $0.74, climbing towards a short-term resistance degree of $0.7745.

This motion marks the most recent try to retest the $0.84 resistance zone, which Cardano final approached on 13 Might and 23 Might.

But, the upside transfer has been met with hesitation.

The token stays caught between the important thing $0.72 and $0.77 ranges — a spread that analysts are intently monitoring as a “no-trade zone” resulting from restricted directional readability.

Blended technical alerts

At the moment, ADA is consolidating above the 200-day EMA, with the shifting common construction providing some near-term assist.

The MACD indicator has shaped a bullish crossover, additional confirmed by optimistic histogram bars.

This setup means that patrons nonetheless keep some management over short-term worth motion.

Nevertheless, not all technical alerts are aligned. A bearish crossover between the 50- and 100-day EMAs is starting to type.

If ADA breaks beneath the 200-day EMA, this crossover may end in a “loss of life cross” situation — a traditionally bearish technical sample that always alerts prolonged declines.

Cardano’s capacity to keep up momentum will doubtless depend upon whether or not it may well break by way of the $0.77 resistance barrier.

A profitable breach may result in a rally again towards the $0.84 degree.

In distinction, failure to carry above $0.72 may see ADA retesting longer-term assist close to $0.70.

Derivatives knowledge weakens

Whereas spot costs maintain agency, knowledge from the derivatives market presents a much less optimistic view.

Based on CoinGlass, open curiosity in ADA futures contracts has declined 0.43% to $920.12 million.

This declining exercise within the derivatives area displays weakening dealer curiosity and reduces the chance of a powerful breakout.

It additionally signifies that enormous speculative positions are being trimmed or closed, a pattern that always results in worth consolidation or short-term reversals.

ADA at a crucial degree

Cardano’s worth motion now is determined by whether or not it may well decisively escape of its present vary.

Whereas there may be potential for a transfer again to $0.84 if bulls regain momentum, present market dynamics recommend ADA may stay range-bound and even expertise renewed promoting stress.

Volatility within the broader crypto market has additionally contributed to ADA’s stagnation.

Bitcoin is presently holding close to the $109,000 degree, and main altcoins are consolidating after sturdy April rallies.

With no sturdy catalyst, Cardano might wrestle to draw recent inflows within the quick time period.

As of now, ADA stays in a technical holding sample, with each bullish and bearish situations in play.

The following few buying and selling periods will probably be crucial in figuring out whether or not Cardano can reclaim its March highs — or face one other leg decrease.

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