Bitcoin has rebounded from an early-February slide that briefly pushed it to $60,000 and produced its most oversold sign on report, easing a number of the stress that has weighed on crypto markets.
Based on CryptoSlate’s information, the flagship digital asset has steadied in current days and briefly approached the $70,000 mark earlier than settling round $67,300 as of press time
This worth motion helped enhance the broader market sentiment as a result of it coincided with a three-day stretch of web inflows into US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), their strongest run this month.
On the similar time, the market is exhibiting indicators of improved spot demand for the primary time since late November.
Because of this, there was renewed market hypothesis that BTC may get well to $90,000 in March, although derivatives positioning suggests merchants nonetheless see that consequence as a protracted shot.
Choices are pricing restoration, however not conviction
Bitcoin’s choices market suggests merchants are nonetheless paying up for cover, at the same time as chatter builds round a fast rebound.
On Deribit, the March 27 $90,000 name lately traded round $522, which interprets to lower than a 6% implied chance of Bitcoin reaching that stage by late March underneath customary Black-Scholes modeling.
In the meantime, the March 27 $50,000 put was close to $1,380, implying roughly a 20% likelihood of a deeper drop.
CME Group information factors to the identical warning. On Feb. 5, 25-delta implied volatility rose to 75% for calls and 95% for places, each the very best since 2022, whereas the 25-delta threat reversal slid to minus 19.34, its lowest stage since 2022.
That blend is typical of a market nonetheless shopping for draw back insurance coverage and never one satisfied the selloff is over.
On the similar time, derivatives positioning exhibits why the restoration narrative has not vanished.
CME stated open curiosity tied to March expirations skewed bullish, with about $660 million in name open curiosity versus $240 million in put open curiosity, a 3-to-1 ratio.
Derive, a crypto choices platform, echoed that learn in a Feb. 27 e-mail assertion to CryptoSlate.
The agency stated Bitcoin volatility has eased again into the 50% vary, a stage extra according to consolidation than panic, whereas 25-delta skew improved from about minus 15% to round minus 7%, suggesting merchants have turn out to be much less defensive.
Throughout the March 27 expiry, the market exhibits name accumulation at $80,000 and $90,000 alongside significant put curiosity at $60,000 and $55,000, signaling buyers need upside publicity with out dropping hedges.
In conclusion, the agency said:
“The info factors towards a market trying to kind a base. Volatility compression, bettering sentiment metrics and more and more structured positioning counsel merchants are transitioning away from defensive panic towards conditional optimism, making ready for upside participation whereas remaining protected towards one other leg decrease.”
ETF flows nonetheless maintain the important thing to any quick transfer
If Bitcoin is to maneuver past a gradual restoration, the exchange-traded fund market stays the clearest supply of further demand. That can also be the place the rebound case faces its greatest check.
Information from SoSoValue present US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded $2.6 billion in web outflows for the reason that begin of 2026.
That marks a pointy shift from the identical interval a yr earlier and suggests one in every of Bitcoin’s most seen institutional demand channels has been subtracting from momentum moderately than including to it.
The difficulty for bullish buyers isn’t a single weak week. It’s the threat {that a} sustained stretch of unfavorable flows can restrict rallies, weaken momentum, and depart spot patrons to soak up promoting stress with out assist from one of many market’s largest sources of demand.
Nevertheless, there are early indicators that demand could also be returning.
SoSoValue information present that spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted greater than $1 billion in web inflows during the last three buying and selling classes this week, at the same time as BTC continues to commerce in a decent vary.
That represents a notable enchancment after a protracted interval of outflows.
Nonetheless, three days of inflows don’t set up a sturdy development, particularly if Bitcoin is to make a reputable push towards $90,000 in March.
For that to occur, the ETF market would possible want a number of extra sturdy classes in shut succession, sufficient to soak up overhead provide and assist create the form of suggestions loop that pulls in further spot demand.
Even when flows enhance, $90,000 isn’t a clean-air goal.
Glassnode beforehand famous that Bitcoin stays in what it referred to as a defensive part, with promoting stress nonetheless being absorbed in a $60,000 to $72,000 demand hall.
The agency additionally pointed to giant provide clusters overhead, at $82,000 to $97,000 and once more at $100,000 to $117,000. These ranges mirror the place many holders are sitting on unrealized losses and could also be extra keen to promote into aid rallies.
In that context, $90,000 isn’t just a psychological marker. It sits inside a heavier provide band that the market would wish to work by way of.
Furthermore, Glassnode’s realized worth, a extensively watched proxy for the market’s combination value foundation, was $54,614.94 as of Feb. 26.
That doesn’t suggest Bitcoin should return to that stage. Nevertheless, it exhibits the space between present costs and a deeper valuation reference, which tends to attract consideration during times of stress.
Within the close to time period, current efforts to retake $70,000 have met seen profit-taking.
Glassnode stated smoothed web realized revenue and loss rose above $5 million an hour on Feb. 25 as Bitcoin climbed to a peak close to $69,400 earlier than stalling.
The agency stated profit-taking continued to soak up momentum across the $70,000 stage, reinforcing the image of a market recovering in a thin-liquidity setting the place even modest bursts of promoting can interrupt advances.
March is filled with catalysts, not certainty
The March calendar additionally argues towards treating $90,000 as an easy name.
It is because Bitcoin will face a collection of macroeconomic checks that would form demand for threat belongings.
For context, the US jobs report for February is due March 6. The February client worth index information is scheduled for launch on March 11. The Federal Reserve meets March 17-18. The January Private Revenue and Outlays report, which incorporates the PCE inflation gauge, is due March 25.
These occasions matter as a result of Bitcoin stays delicate to interest-rate expectations, inflation information, and broader liquidity circumstances.
Reuters reported this week that the Fed is predicted to maintain its benchmark charge in a 3.50% to three.75% vary at its March assembly, as current shifts in market expectations decreased confidence in early charge cuts.
That backdrop isn’t essentially unfavorable for Bitcoin. Nevertheless it additionally doesn’t present the form of clear easing sign that might make a fast climb to $90,000 look possible.
Taken collectively, these circumstances assist clarify the market’s cautious optimism.
Nevertheless, there’s a credible path to larger costs in March. Softer inflation information, a much less restrictive tone from the Fed, a number of classes of sturdy ETF inflows, and additional brief protecting in derivatives may push Bitcoin sharply larger.
The March choices positioning exhibits merchants see that state of affairs. Nevertheless, the continued demand for draw back safety exhibits they don’t seem to be totally satisfied.
