Ostium Analysis’s newest weekly observe opened with Bitcoin below stress after a swift selloff into the brand new week, describing “a mass liquidation occasion” that pushed worth as little as $111,761, after rejection close to resistance within the mid-$117,000s.
The workforce frames the drawdown as a part of a beforehand flagged “window of weak point… into early October,” whereas stressing the higher-timeframe uptrend stays intact except key weekly ranges fail. The report, revealed September 22, 2025, units out each the technical map and the occasion calendar that would govern path-dependency over the subsequent a number of periods.
Bitcoin Crash To $99,000 Looms
On the weekly chart, Ostium notes final week’s consolidation across the August open and a wick into “key resistance… at $117.5k,” adopted by an in depth marginally beneath the open. Early-week worth motion then carried worth beneath reclaimed assist into the $111k deal with, with the analysts highlighting “over $1.6bn in longs liquidated to date right now.”
Two structural inflection zones anchor the bearish threat: “Acceptance beneath $107k on a weekly shut would open up extra draw back into $99k,” whereas on the topside “the weekly excessive at $115.3k… is at the very least revisited a while later within the week.”
Associated Studying
On the day by day timeframe, the August open at $115.7k is the pivot the market should reclaim to reassert momentum. Because the authors put it, “that August open at $115.7k [is] a key stage to flip into assist to renew bullishness.”
The fast battleground is the prior all-time excessive at $112k, the place “a reclaim of $112k as assist” would tilt chances towards the next low and power shorts to cowl right into a transfer again by means of $115.7k. Their base case, nonetheless, is for extra chop “between $112k-$115k earlier than a second push decrease beneath right now’s low,” which can decide whether or not the market undercuts the June swing at $107k or marks out a backside sooner.
Tactically, Ostium lays out each lengthy and brief triggers with uncommon readability. On the lengthy facet: “a sweep of right now’s low early this week after which a reclaim of $112k as assist,” driving momentum “again into the weekly excessive.” On the brief facet, they float what they name “a very nice brief setup… a pointy v-reversal… again above the weekly excessive… earlier than… rejecting and breaking again beneath $115.3k,” which might then goal “$112k and decrease.” In different phrases, a squeeze-then-fade path that punishes each late longs and late shorts.
Associated Studying
Positioning and derivatives breadth spherical out the near-term blueprint. The observe shares snapshots of 3-month annualized foundation, Bitcoin versus altcoin open curiosity, and one-week/one-month liquidation maps, underscoring how rapidly liquidity pockets can flip into magnets in skinny circumstances.
This informs their near-term expectation that “the subsequent leg decrease or second liquidation occasion this week [could] be a excessive chance low,” adopted by a retest of $115.3k that may act because the tape’s verdict on whether or not one other down-leg or a bear-trap reversal is in play into quarter-end.
The home view stays probabilistic somewhat than doctrinaire. If $107k fails on a weekly shut, the weak point window may prolong into “$99k”; if it holds—and particularly if the market can “flip $115.7k into assist”—the higher-low narrative stays alive. Within the authors’ phrases, for Ethereum “nothing about this increased timeframe construction or momentum is at present giga-bearish,” and, by analogy, Bitcoin’s construction is greatest judged by the response round $111.7k–$112k this week.
Whether or not right now’s flush proves to be prelude to capitulation or the lure earlier than new highs, Ostium’s backside line is evident: “we transfer a lot increased from early October” except these weekly thresholds are accepted decrease.
At press time, BTC traded at $113,002.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
