Briefly
Odds of Bitcoin and Ethereum value bumps are rising on prediction markets, even when sentiment stays bearish.
Regardless of the worth jumps this week, the Crypto Worry & Greed Index nonetheless says the market is in “Excessive Worry.”
Whereas near-term merchants could also be leaning bullish, they nonetheless do not anticipate new all-time highs this yr for BTC or ETH.
Crypto merchants have turn into extra optimistic concerning the near-term value actions in Bitcoin and Ethereum, prediction market information exhibits—however total market sentiment remains to be within the gutter.
Odds on Myriad’s prediction market—which is operated by Decrypt’s mother or father firm, Dastan—have swung greater than 20% in the previous couple of days in favor of a “pump” to $84,000 for Bitcoin earlier than it dumps right down to $55,000.
That transfer coincides with the highest crypto asset’s vital rebound from under $63,000 on Tuesday to greater than $69,000 on Wednesday. The value of Bitcoin at the moment sits at $67,137, as of this writing.
Nonetheless, individuals nonetheless level to a drop to $55,000 earlier than a leap, giving the plunge roughly 56% odds as of this writing.
The identical is true for Ethereum, which jumped from round $1,815 earlier this week to over $2,100 on Wednesday—greater than a 15% acquire. The transfer swung the corresponding Myriad pump and dump market across the similar quantity in favor of a transfer to $3,000, slimming odds of a “dump” to round 62.5%. Ethereum at the moment sits at $2,023.
But, amid value rebounds and shifting prediction market sentiment, the Crypto Worry & Greed Index—which analyzes emotion and sentiment within the crypto market—nonetheless sits in “Excessive Worry.”
The index, which makes use of information factors from social media, crypto volatility, and market momentum, has been caught at that stage for almost all of February as costs started their fast decline at the start of the month.
The effervescent disconnect between prediction market merchants and market sentiment is clear on different prediction market platforms as nicely.
Predictors on Kalshi now give Bitcoin only a 66% probability of dropping under $55,000 this yr—a ten% drop within the final week. Equally, odds of a extra appreciable fall for Ethereum—a drop under $1,500—fell 10% as nicely, now sitting at simply 63% on Kalshi.
Nonetheless, whereas dealer sentiment has swung with the costs in the previous couple of days, latest professional evaluation has nonetheless warned of extra ache forward of doubtless greater positive aspects.
For instance, CryptoQuant evaluation factors to a actual bear-market backside for Bitcoin round $55,000, and Normal Chartered says ETH will hit $1,400 and BTC will drop to $50,000 earlier than the belongings start their true, respective rebounds.
How excessive would possibly these rebounds be? Whereas predictors have turn into barely extra bullish in latest days, they nonetheless don’t have new all-time highs in sight. On Polymarket, predictors give each Bitcoin and Ethereum only a 19% probability of reaching a excessive mark by the top of 2026.
Bitcoin and Ethereum had been not too long ago buying and selling about 47% and 59% off their 2025 all-time highs, respectively.
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