On Jan. 9, Tennessee’s sports activities betting regulator despatched a set of letters that, at first look, seemed just like the sort of paperwork most crypto natives scroll previous.
The message was blunt: cease providing sports-related occasion contracts to Tennessee residents, void unsettled positions, and refund clients by Jan. 31.
The recipients, Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com, sit on the border between finance and playing.
A “sure/no” commerce on a recreation consequence could be framed both as a federally regulated by-product or as an unlicensed sportsbook.
Inside days, the combat moved to federal court docket.
A US district choose in Nashville, Aleta Trauger, issued a short lived restraining order blocking Tennessee from imposing its cease-and-desist towards Kalshi whereas the case proceeds. She additionally set a Jan. 26 listening to on a longer-lasting injunction.
Tennessee says the corporate is working an unlawful playing operation with no state license and permitting underage betting.
Kalshi says Tennessee is making an attempt to manage merchandise that fall beneath the unique jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee (CFTC).
The quick story is a state crackdown and a compliance deadline.
The bigger story is a jurisdictional stress check: Can a state sports activities wagering council fence off contracts {that a} federally designated change claims it has the fitting to listing nationwide?
If states maintain pushing, what occurs to probably the most promising new retail funnel crypto has discovered since memecoins: an interface that turns present occasions into tradable contracts?
The jurisdiction combat: who will get to determine what that is?
We have to start with the uncomfortable undeniable fact that each side have a credible-sounding authorized principle.
From Kalshi’s perspective, it’s not a sportsbook. It’s a chosen contract market, the CFTC’s time period for an change regulated beneath the Commodity Alternate Act, akin to a standard futures venue that may serve retail members.
The CFTC has publicly described designated contract markets as exchanges working beneath its oversight.
In 2020, the company introduced it had granted KalshiEX an order of designation as a contract market.
Kalshi’s authorized argument leans on a robust clause in federal commodities legislation: the CFTC “shall have unique jurisdiction” over sure derivatives transactions, together with these traded on a chosen contract market.
That language exists as a result of Congress wished one nationwide referee for derivatives, fairly than 50 state rulebooks.
From Tennessee’s perspective, none of that issues if the product, in substance, is sports activities wagering.
The Tennessee Sports activities Wagering Council (SWC) regulates sports activities betting beneath state legislation, together with who can wager (the letters and associated reporting cite greater than 21 necessities), what client protections apply, and what taxes licensed operators should pay.
The SWC accused the platforms of providing sports activities contracts with no license, violating state eligibility guidelines, and missing required protections.
It’s all language that frames occasion contracts as a client and public-interest drawback fairly than a monetary innovation.
That is the place prediction markets collide with America’s peculiar regulatory geography: derivatives are largely federal, and playing is generally state.
Sports activities betting, specifically, is extremely native.
If a product can plausibly be described as both a by-product or a wager, the query turns into which system is allowed to outline it first.
Tennessee’s case arrives after a headline-making loss for Kalshi in Nevada, the place a federal choose concluded the platform was topic to state gaming guidelines, a call Kalshi appealed.
That Nevada ruling undercuts the clear “federal preemption” story and emboldens states that see sports activities contracts as a workaround round licensing regimes they fought to construct.
On the similar time, the CFTC itself has despatched combined alerts, partly by design.
On its web site, the company describes occasion contracts as derivatives whose payoff is predicated on specified occasions (financial indicators, climate, damages from a hurricane).
It additionally emphasizes that CFTC Regulation 40.11 prohibits occasion contracts that reference terrorism, battle, gaming, or actions illegal beneath state or federal legislation, amongst different classes.
Gaming is the fulcrum. If sports activities consequence contracts are seen as “gaming,” they’re within the forbidden zone.
In the event that they’re framed as “info contracts” with financial utility, they belong within the tradable universe the CFTC oversees.
In 2025, the CFTC issued an advisory noting that sports-related occasion contracts listed on designated contract markets had been listed through self-certification.
The advisory stated the Fee had not, up to now, taken official approval motion on itemizing sports-related occasion contracts beneath sure CEA provisions.
Whereas the advisory had little sensible affect in the marketplace, its language reads like a regulator leaving itself room to intervene later.
So when Tennessee attracts its line, it isn’t simply daring Kalshi, Polymarket, or Crypto.com.
It’s testing whether or not the federal system will defend the premise {that a} nationally regulated derivatives change can listing sports-related contracts, and whether or not the CFTC will tolerate the class changing into a parallel sportsbook business.
Compliance theater: what platforms do when the legislation is each in all places and nowhere
The favored model of compliance is a guidelines: observe the foundations, file the varieties, transfer on.
That works when the foundations are clear and the regulator is singular.
However prediction markets don’t have that luxurious.
They function in a jurisdictional overlap, and the overlap produces a definite sort of compliance conduct.
You may name it compliance theater, not as a result of it’s pretend, however as a result of it’s performative.
Each transfer you make, and each phrase you say within the compliance theater, sends a message about who you suppose has authority.
If a platform receives a cease-and-desist letter and instantly geofences the state, refunds customers, and voids contracts, it reduces authorized publicity and avoids penalties.
Nevertheless it additionally concedes, in follow, that the state regulator’s principle is enforceable.
If it refuses, it could protect its authorized place, however it dangers escalating enforcement, together with civil fines and potential felony referrals.
It might additionally must spend months in court docket to maintain working.
Reporting on the Tennessee letters described potential civil penalties of as much as $25,000 per violation for noncompliance.
Kalshi selected to litigate.
Reuters experiences the corporate argued Tennessee was unconstitutionally making an attempt to ban contract buying and selling on its platform.
The choose’s short-term restraining order suggests the court docket thinks Kalshi might have an actual case, a minimum of at this early stage.
However even a win has prices. Litigation is sluggish, and markets are quick.
If an change is in court docket in eight states directly, as Reuters reported Kalshi has been, then operational certainty turns into a scarce useful resource.
Compliance groups, product roadmaps, and partnerships all get formed by what the subsequent state may do.
The theater side exhibits up in product design, too.
Platforms can increase minimal ages, add “accountable playing” instruments, enhance AML processes, and tighten geo-controls as a lot as they need.
However every change could be learn two methods.
A state regulator might say: You’re admitting that is playing.
A federal-derivatives advocate might say: You’re appearing like a mature market operator, the best way brokerages do after they prohibit sure dangerous merchandise.
This is the reason the Tennessee letters matter past Tennessee.
A state-by-state enforcement method creates market fragmentation.
Liquidity will get chopped into permitted jurisdictions, consumer expertise deteriorates, affiliate distribution turns into more durable, and the product class stops trying like a nationwide market.
As an alternative, it begins to appear to be an app with 50 totally different variations.
That fragmentation is precisely what crypto-native distribution was purported to keep away from.
Data market or sports activities betting: the class identification disaster
In monetary regulation, merchandise are sometimes judged by their financial function and their market construction.
Futures and choices exist not simply to invest however to hedge, uncover costs, and switch threat.
Playing legal guidelines, against this, are constructed round client hurt, habit threat, and the integrity of video games.
Occasion contracts can plausibly declare the primary angle when the occasion is financial.
A contract that settles on a CPI print, for instance, can be utilized to hedge inflation publicity or specific a view on macro threat.
That framing aligns with how the CFTC describes occasion contracts on its web site, as macroeconomic indicators are one of many examples it offers.
Sports activities are more durable.
What financial threat is being hedged by a binary contract on the result of a soccer recreation?
Some advocates argue sports activities markets combination dispersed info (accidents, climate, technique) and may function high-signal prediction instruments.
Critics counter that the best rationalization is the proper one: it’s a wager on a recreation, provided in a wrapper that conveniently avoids sportsbook licensing.
The legislation anticipates this disagreement.
The CFTC’s 40.11 rule is express about limiting occasion contracts tied to “gaming,” and it additionally ties prohibition to actions which can be illegal beneath state or federal legislation.
That’s precisely the lever Tennessee is pulling.
Right here is the difficult half for platforms: even when they imagine sports activities contracts are permissible derivatives, the public-policy case for them is weaker than the case for election odds or inflation markets.
That issues as a result of the CFTC’s authority on this space is extra than simply technical; it’s public-interest flavored.
Reuters reported in 2024 that the CFTC proposed modifications to its occasion contract rule, reflecting authorized stress and the necessity to higher justify why sure classes needs to be handled as opposite to the general public curiosity.
The underlying theme is that “Can we listing it?” isn’t only a statutory query; it’s additionally a reputational one.
Now add crypto to the combo.
The retail market needs a product that feels intuitive, social, and quick: a commerce you possibly can perceive with out studying AMMs or studying a whitepaper.
Sports activities occasion contracts are that product.
They sit on the intersection of fandom, real-time info, and the dopamine loop of a easy sure/no consequence.
That’s why the Tennessee letters goal the precise format that might rebuild crypto’s mainstream consideration with out asking customers to care about blockspace.
Which can also be why states are reacting.
Sports activities betting is a tightly regulated and intensely profitable ecosystem.
If a federally regulated change can supply an adjoining product nationwide with out state licensing, it threatens the gatekeeping mannequin that states depend on: taxes, client controls, and a managed operator listing.
Even when the “occasion contracts” on these platforms are smaller in scale right this moment, the precedent is massive.
What occurs subsequent
If Kalshi wins in Tennessee and related states, the class will get a shot at legitimacy.
Then the stress shifts to the CFTC to make clear whether or not sports activities contracts are suitable with its public-interest mandate.
If states maintain successful, platforms will both retreat into geofenced compliance, turning nationwide liquidity into native swimming pools, or push customers towards workarounds that regulators can’t simply monitor.
The almost certainly near-term consequence is neither a clear federal victory nor a complete state shutdown, however a messy center.
Count on patchwork availability, periodic enforcement flashes, and a relentless identification argument by which “info markets” and “sports activities betting” maintain swapping masks relying on the courtroom.
And that, greater than the Jan. 31 refund deadline, is what makes Tennessee’s letters an actual market-structure story.
They’re forcing the business to reply a query it has tried to postpone: In America, is a tradable sure/no contract on a recreation a monetary instrument, or simply playing with higher UX?
