Polymarket prices 10.5% Iran regime fall odds before 2027 amid US strikes

Polymarket costs 10.5% Iran regime fall odds earlier than 2027 amid US strikes

Polymarket Holds “Iranian Regime Falls Earlier than 2027” at 10.5% After twelfth Night time of US Strikes

On Polymarket, the contract “Will the Iranian regime fall earlier than 2027?” is pricing a ten.5% likelihood of a fall, unchanged on the newest snapshot, with $22.86M in quantity. The catalyst in focus is a report that the US army accomplished a twelfth straight evening of strikes on Iran, and merchants’ pricing may be learn by way of the latest 24h/7d odds drift slightly than a single headline transfer.

Key Takeaways

Polymarket’s main view is “No” at 89.5% (vs “Sure” 10.5%) on whether or not the Iranian regime falls earlier than 2027.Regardless of the strikes-related catalyst, the newest snapshot is flat at 10.5% “Sure,” pointing to restricted instant repricing on this market.The contract resolves on 2026-12-31; the market has moved +4.0pp over each 24h and 7d within the historic abstract.

A July 23 report says the US army accomplished a twelfth straight evening of strikes on Iran. The headline frames a sustained sequence of nightly operations, which may act as a catalyst for merchants to revisit tail-risk contracts tied to Iranian political stability.

Odds & Move Test: 10.5% Sure / 89.5% No With $22.86M Quantity and +4.0pp Drift Over 24h and 7d

This can be a binary Polymarket contract: shopping for “Sure” corresponds to a regime fall earlier than 2027, whereas “No” corresponds to no fall by the decision deadline of 2026-12-31, and the present pricing sits at Sure 10.5% / No 89.5%. Even with the exterior catalyst within the background, the newest tick is flat (0.0pp change versus the prior snapshot), suggesting the market isn’t treating the headline alone as adequate to shift the bottom case. The historic abstract nonetheless reveals a +4.0pp transfer over each 24 hours and seven days, with low acknowledged volatility and a “impartial” development, which is per gradual repricing slightly than a disorderly soar. With $22.86M traded, the contract displays a comparatively liquid consensus round “No,” whereas the “consensus: weakening” tag signifies the implied chance has been drifting upward from a decrease baseline (avg final 5 at 9.8 vs newest 10.5) whilst path on the timestamp is unchanged.

Watch whether or not the implied “Sure” chance can maintain above the latest common (9.8) into subsequent updates, and whether or not the market continues to grind increased (+4.0pp over 24h/7d within the abstract) or snaps again towards the prior 8.5% ranges seen within the historic change factors.

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Past the headline contract, merchants typically triangulate sentiment throughout adjoining Polymarket listings that seize the identical threat complicated from totally different angles. Proper now that features 74.2% on “Iran chief finish of 2026?” (Mojtaba Khamenei) with $33.81M in quantity, 99.05% on “Strait of Hormuz visitors returns to regular by July 31?” (No) with $19.63M traded, and a close to coin-flip 50.5% on “US x Iran Efficient Ceasefire by…? (2 week pause)” (August 31). For shorter-dated positioning, “Iran full airspace closure by…?” is at 53.5% (August 31), whereas “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues by way of…?” is priced at 100.0% (July 18) on $2.56M quantity.

Odds Pattern

WindowChange (pp)24h+4.07d+4.0
Implied odds (final 48h)Odds %Will the Iranian regime fal…

By the Numbers

Platform: PolymarketMarket: Will the Iranian regime fall earlier than 2027?Decision window: Dec 31, 2026 (UTC)Standing: Lively (open for buying and selling)Main implied prob.: 10.5percentVolume: ~$22,860,698Top outcomes: Sure: Sure 10.5% / No 89.5%; No: Sure 10.5% / No 89.5%

Associated Information

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