Key Takeaways
Trump claimed gasoline costs fell “very considerably” on Might 8, however AAA information reveals they rose to $4.52/gal that day.The U.S.-Iran battle disrupted roughly 20% of worldwide oil provide, pushing Brent crude previous $100/barrel in Might 2026.EIA forecasts Brent may peak close to $115/bbl in Q2 2026 earlier than easing if the Strait of Hormuz tensions resolve.
U.S. Fuel Costs Are up $1.40 From Final 12 months
Trump made the declare throughout a press trade this week when reporters requested about his Center East technique amid pump costs exceeding $4.50 per gallon. He pushed again, telling reporters that gasoline costs had fallen “very considerably” that day and have been “manner down.” Nonetheless, AAA information reveals costs held close to elevated ranges earlier than a 1-cent easing — nicely in need of any substantial decline.
The numbers inform a special story. At Trump’s January 2025 inauguration, the nationwide common sat close to $3.05 to $3.20 per gallon. By late 2025 and early 2026, costs had pulled again to a low of round $2.81 in January 2026. Since then, the trajectory has moved in a single route.
March 2026 introduced a month-to-month common of $3.64 per gallon. April climbed to roughly $4.10. By early Might, costs had crossed $4.45 to $4.58, relying on the supply. The latest week alone added about 25 cents to the nationwide common. In comparison with Might 2025, when common averaged $3.14 to $3.26 per gallon, drivers are actually paying greater than $1.40 further on the pump.
The first driver is the continuing U.S.-Iran battle. Army exercise tied to Strait of Hormuz tensions disrupted an estimated 20% of worldwide oil provide flows. Brent crude crossed $100 per barrel, with WTI buying and selling close to $94 to $95. These crude ranges feed straight into retail costs, since oil sometimes accounts for 50 to 60% of what shoppers pay on the pump.
The Vitality Info Administration has forecast that Brent may peak close to $115 per barrel within the second quarter of 2026 earlier than easing, contingent on battle decision. The Brent-WTI unfold has widened to $5 to $12 per barrel attributable to elevated transport prices and provide route disruptions.
Trump has provided forward-looking assurances all through the battle. He has informed People that costs will “come crashing down” on a number of events as soon as preventing ends and cited ample international oil provides as a buffer. He has additionally referenced post-conflict targets as little as $2 per gallon. These claims are speculative and rely upon how shortly the Strait of Hormuz disruptions unwind.
Presidents carry restricted affect over short-term retail gasoline costs. Crude markets, refining margins, taxes, and distribution prices decide what shoppers pay. The Trump administration has deployed Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases and Jones Act waivers to alleviate some stress, with blended outcomes.
The 2026 worth trajectory echoes the 2022 spike below the Biden administration, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine helped push the nationwide common above $5 per gallon. Wars are likely to put stress on power markets. Costs moderated between 2023 and 2025 earlier than the present geopolitical shock reversed that pattern.
AAA information reveals no week-over-week decline within the interval Trump referenced. Month-over-month, costs rose roughly 40 cents. 12 months-over-year, they’re up greater than $1.40. The EIA’s weekly retail gasoline reviews corroborate these figures.
Trump has taken credit score for the decline from Biden-era highs that occurred throughout the first yr of his second time period. That decline was actual. However the present information doesn’t help a declare that costs dropped this week, considerably or in any other case.
Retail costs are likely to comply with crude with a lag of 1 to 4 weeks, and that costs traditionally rise quicker than they fall — a dynamic typically known as “rockets and feathers.” If the battle de-escalates and crude pulls again from present ranges, shoppers would probably see aid inside weeks, not days.
