UPTOBER IS HEREEE!! LFG Y’ALL!!!! 🔥 THE CROWD GOES… fairly delicate, really.
However hey, AT LEAST CRYPTO’S NOT CRASHING!!! 🗣️🔊
The delicate greens you are seeing within the value desk rn are principally pushed by macro and political elements. Extra particularly, this 👇
The US authorities shut down at the moment after lawmakers didn’t cross a funding invoice.
And for crypto, that creates two speedy results:
1️⃣ Greenback weak point: political dysfunction typically drags the greenback down. And a weaker greenback = capital hunts for different shops of worth = crypto picks up a few of it.
2️⃣ Bitcoin as a “secure haven”: increasingly more, Bitcoin’s being handled like a hedge towards political and monetary instability, and the shutdown’s good for that narrative.
That stated, there’s additionally an issue.
As a result of the federal government is shut down, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and Census Bureau are furloughed (solely independently funded businesses just like the Federal Reserve and Treasury maintain operating).
Which means essential financial knowledge experiences could not come out on schedule.
“And this issues becaaause…?” – you, possibly. Glad you requested.
Expectations of a Fed charge lower had been one of many greatest drivers of the final crypto rally, and merchants leaned closely on jobs and inflation knowledge to construct that case.
With these experiences doubtlessly delayed, the market loses its fundamental macro compass.
So, whereas uncertainty and greenback weak point can help Bitcoin, the shortage of knowledge makes it more durable for merchants (and the Fed itself) to confidently value in charge cuts.
And that leaves us with a really uncommon October calendar 👇
❓ October 3: Jobs report
Usually one of the essential month-to-month clues for the Fed – nevertheless it will not be launched if the shutdown remains to be in place.
❓ October 15: CPI
That is often a very powerful pre-Fed inflation studying. Identical story, although: delayed if the shutdown continues.
❓ October 16: PPI
Additionally depending on funding being restored. With out it, markets lose secondary inflation alerts too.
❓ Mid-October: SEC deadlines for altcoin ETFs (SOL, XRP, LTC, DOGE, and many others.)
The SEC can be affected by furloughs, so deadlines could also be pushed again.
🟢 October 29: FOMC assembly & Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press convention
Nonetheless on. An important occasion of the month.
However Powell must set coverage with out new jobs or inflation knowledge, which may make him lean cautious.
🟢 October 29 – 30: ECB Governing Council.
Nonetheless on. Presents world liquidity cues that spill into crypto.
So yeah, total: issa mess.
For now, October’s story appears to be like like this: much less knowledge, extra volatility, and heavier reliance on narratives and central banks.
However we’ll see.
